Death by a falling tree - the risk is low

Climate change is with us. According to Victoria Government’s Natural Environment Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan 2022-2026, “Victoria's climate has changed in recent decades, becoming warmer and drier. These changes are expected to continue in the future.”

Extreme weather events are expected to increase, including bush fires, floods and wind storms. Trees are susceptible to wild weather and the reports of trees blowing down due to windthrow during wet and windy conditions are likely to rise.

Trees though are very resilient – they are biologically engineered to adjust to their situations. They are naturally designed to sway in the wind. Root systems will develop in a direction to take account of prevailing wind directions. Often it is recommended that new trees not be staked for long periods in order for the tree to develop natural resistance to existing wind directions. In March 2022, New Scientist reported that “Trees that grow close together are better at withstanding storms”.

Although extreme storms are a concern, we should remember that trees provide many environmental, economical and health benefits – lowering ambient temperatures, increasing property values, cleaning the air we breathe - are examples.

Information on deaths in Australia due to a falling tree is scarce. In 2007, A Brookes produced a paper Outdoor education fatalities in Australia for the Australian Journal of Outdoor Education in which, for the first time, a list of deaths from tree failure in Australia was published. Details of seventeen fatalities over a forty-year period were given.

In 2019, M Hartley and J Chalk produced A review of deaths in Australia from accidental tree failure for the Arborist Network. In their report, Hartley and Chalk quote “Our results have shown that injuries attributed to accidental tree failures make up a very small proportion of the total trauma admissions to our Level-1 Trauma Centre.”  The report also indicates that not all deaths from a falling tree occurred during a storm. Other circumstances included work related incidents such as timber harvesting processes, cleaning up after a storm and controlling or mopping up after bushfires.

Hartley and Chalk pointed out that, “Most people are comfortable being exposed to risks many times greater than the risk posed by tree failure” and that the risk of being killed by a falling tree is markedly lower than the risk from some other common causes of mortality such as:

Melanoma – 1 in 13,500

Driving a vehicle – 1 in 20,000

Asthma attack – 1 in 60,000

Murder, 1 in 100,000

Falling from a bed – 1 in 420,000

Accidental tree failure – 1 in 5,000,000

Accidental tree failure while inside a house – 1 in 189,000,000

 

Further references:

The epidemiology of injuries related to falling trees and tree branches – Way and Balough – Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (“We demonstrated that the likelihood of being injured by falling trees is very low. This information should be taken into account when planning future developments or considering the removal of existing trees in the interest of public safety.”)